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October is too soon. There aren't as many vacancies as you might think. I have been looking at the orders everyday since Sept. There is an average of about 1 LT putting in to retire each WEEK. These freaking dinosaurs just refuse to leave. Early 2017, sometime around March/April is a safe bet.
They've promoted 60 so far. Figure another 320 SGTs for 2016 (to keep it on the conservative side) for another year of 380. That would bring the list to about number 440 by January of 2017. Figure one more class of 45 between Jan and March to play it safe and you're looking at anywhere between list number 485 to 500 should make the cut for the LT exam. This is of course if it's in March. Anyone who is after list #500 realistically doesn't have too much of a shot at making the LT test.
