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Post Info TOPIC: My Predictions Thread


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My Predictions Thread


Remember this is just my predictions. Its based off past exams and also the position we are in now. Things can change and it probably will. 


NUMBER OF THROW OUT DOUBLE ANSWERS 

- 1 or 2 questions 



HOW MANY PASSED?

- Around 1100. 
(Honestly it's hard to tell since we have alot of idiots on this site spreading false info but I'm going with my gut feeling and also past exams. Wont be surprise if it hits 1500 but def not 2000 or 3000 and EVERYONE WILL GET PROMOTED. 




LIST # ESTABLISHED DATE

- May 2012 
(7 months from test date. The 09 test took 1 year and the 08 test took 8 months. Our test is very similar to 08 test in terms of timing and position of current list numbers)



FINAL 2009 SGT CLASS

- April 2012
(3 classes to close it out) 



FIRST 2011  SGT CLASS

- August/September 2012 
(tough one but I predict a small break in between the 2009 test and 2011 test. And 5 year wonders should be good to go first class in)



NEXT SGT TEST

- LATE 2013 EARLY 2014
( But beware!!! The days of straight forward patrol guide questions are over. future exams are going to look more like the 2011 LT test.)



FUTURE LT TEST

- 4 MORE YEARS. 2011 test will not get thrown out and I still see over 1000 passing anyways especially after they throw out 10-15 questions. I call the 2011 the "NEXT GEN" test. This is what we are going to see for now on. So I hope everyone is ready. 



DOES MW3 SUCK

- YESSSS IT SUCKS. Same old game. Battlefield 3 is much better. That is all. 
...............................................................................................................

-- Edited by CryTwoSeven on Thursday 17th of November 2011 07:39:02 AM

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Wonder y my post always looks bunched up together on my iPhone. Wtf

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Haha, well your key was good so your predictions might be pretty legit too. Think these all seem pretty reasonable.

While you're doing predictions how many people do you think made above a 90 after points are added in? Want to know where I might stand on the list :p

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Ok Cry to address some things. After the 2008 test people started getting promoted 6 months after taking it. 2009 test still had more than 70% of the 2008 list unpromoted so there was no rush to make a list. The list for this test will be generated no later than March. Promotions will start in April. If only 1,000 people pass a lot will get skipped considering you always have high amounts of 3.5 year on cops passing. This means they will probably in that year promote almost everyone that has already over 5 years on. Everyone will be promoted and the list will be done by march 2013. Trust me when I tell you they will never offer a test like that Lieutenants test again. It was a dry run at something they tried that failed miserably. This job needs a certain amount of people to pass every test. Which is what determines how they write tests and why they make them tricky or straight forward. Call it a quota if you must. If the job consistently gave tests like that the dept would be very short at all times.

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Semp1 wrote:

Ok Cry to address some things. After the 2008 test people started getting promoted 6 months after taking it. 2009 test still had more than 70% of the 2008 list unpromoted so there was no rush to make a list. The list for this test will be generated no later than March. Promotions will start in April. If only 1,000 people pass a lot will get skipped considering you always have high amounts of 3.5 year on cops passing. This means they will probably in that year promote almost everyone that has already over 5 years on. Everyone will be promoted and the list will be done by march 2013. Trust me when I tell you they will never offer a test like that Lieutenants test again. It was a dry run at something they tried that failed miserably. This job needs a certain amount of people to pass every test. Which is what determines how they write tests and why they make them tricky or straight forward. Call it a quota if you must. If the job consistently gave tests like that the dept would be very short at all times.






To clear things up

2008 sgt exam was in feb  of 2008, list came out around September of that year and first class came out around November or december so in all it took 11 months from exam date to get to the first class. And remember Only 300 passed the 2007 so they were pretty much done with that list around the time the 08 list came out

2009 test was crazy since the 08 had just started promoting when that exam came out so that's why it took a year for just the list. Than it took another 9 months for them to start promoting. The department had soo much time that's why it took forever with that exam and it's still not over. 
 
And honestly I hope things go way you think it will but who knows. I still think they will take a break, it's just crazy to think that u can take a SGT test and get promoted less than 6 months after the test.  

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His key was way better than good. It was the best Ive seen. Only 1 off the real deal and it was in my favor so I couldnt thank cry27 enough. Cry I really hope these predictions are as good as your key because I have a raw score of 79 + 4.6 extra for a total of 83.6 with longevity from 1/20/04 class and Ive been nervous of the 3000 pass rate because I still feel like I didnt score high enough. Its good to have guys like you and Semp on this forum providing us worry warts with reassurance instead of negativity.

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CryTwoSeven and Semp1 what commands are you from?

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great thread cry27 you have been the most helpfull person up in here,,,what you have battelfield3 for

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gotabimer wrote:

great thread cry27 you have been the most helpfull person up in here,,,what you have battelfield3 for


Got it for the 360. And also the unofficial key was not just me alone, we all gave great info and all I did was put it all together. Lol the haters told us it couldn't be done but we proved them wrong.

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YEAH I HAVE IT FOR PS3 ,,I HAVE360 TOO BUT I ONLY HAVE GEARS3 FOR IT....AND YEAP THERE WAS ALOT OF MOS TELLING ME THAT YOUR LIST WAS FAKE AND GUESS WHAT THEY GOT A BIG F



-- Edited by gotabimer on Thursday 17th of November 2011 08:51:34 AM

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So what's the break down by score?

91+ = 150
80 - 90 = 400
70 - 79 = 600 or more?

What do you think? I'm OK at predicting but you seem to be better.

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This talk of 3000 passing and All will not be made has Made me sick to my stomach and anxious. I Received a 79.948. I hope what you are saying is correct cry. I dont want to die on the list. I don't care if I am the last person that gets hired . I just don't want to die on the list

-- Edited by New2this on Thursday 17th of November 2011 11:13:01 AM

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Passed now......my family benefits. Thank you



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Only a little over 4000 took the test no way 3000 passed. No way any where near 2000 passed.

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I really don't believe only 4,000 took it.  Would you really be surprised that some lady from DCAS just didn't tell you that to "make her look in the know."  I took the test at sheepshead and there was at least 1500 people there, but closer to 1800.  I'm sure Queens had a huge turnout as well.  They also gave the test at FDR in brooklyn and Im betting a huge crowd there.  



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How do you know 1500 people were there did you do a head count. Guess what I believe DCAS, The woman had nothing to gain by telling me this. I did not ask her for this info it was in passing conversation. She only said a number because she thought the turn out for the protest was pathetic. Basically she thought a little over 4000 was a lot when compared with the Lieutenants test which had a little over 2000 who took it (another number she got correct) and alot more had signed up for the protest, which is why she was surprised only 250 signed up for the Sergeants protest and only 33 showed up at my location. I too was at Sheepshead by the way and it was the school auditorium that was filled. It couldn't have held more than 500 people. I don't know where you're getting 1500 from. By the way I took the test in 09 at Canarsie and the turnout looked the exact same to me then as this year. The school was no more crowded than usual.

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 17th of November 2011 06:59:54 PM

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 17th of November 2011 07:00:09 PM

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 17th of November 2011 07:04:07 PM

-- Edited by Semp1 on Thursday 17th of November 2011 07:06:08 PM

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Its just a rough estimation buddy.  I was amazed at how many people were there.  The proctor there made us all squeeze into every chair without skipping a space, so you were able to get a good look.  Did anyone else take the test there that can confrim this.  Someone must think I'm trolling.  I'm just trying to be realistic.



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2,000 peple took the LT test.  Does it really makes sense that only 4,000 took the SGTs test?  Cops and detectives outnumber them almost 6 to 1.  Hell, there were five academy classses taking this test for the first time.  They probably made up almost 4,000.  I'm just being logical here.  I only know one or two people I came out with in 07 that didn't bother taking it.  I do know a lot of people that didn't study.  Hey, I would like the number to be 4,000.  Some people will tell you an answer even if they are unsure.  I'm sure you know that.



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List ~1100

90-100+ = 1~150
85-89 = 151~350
80-84= 351~600
75-79= 601-900
70-74= 901-1100

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That would be great.  Everyone would be made by Christmas 2014 at the very latest.



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Bigfoot do you realize that the LTs test was the lowest show up ever. Do you realize that there were more POs and detectives on the job in 09 and even less took that SGT test. I don't think you're trolling. I just think you're feeding into the hysteria. No matter what the list is nobody will die on it this I can promise.

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Semp, I dont think anyone will die either..... except in the unlikely chance that well over 1500 passed and they pass over some academy classes.  I just merely think more people took the test then 4,000.  Just a difference of opinion.



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Everyone who chose the stadium for the mobilization pass or failed this test should be protesting the incorrect questioning of SOUTHERLY or SOUTHERN winds. The word southerly and southern means the winds are blowing up from the south heading in a north direction, why would you put a mobilization into a park or anywhere else that the wind at 35mph of yellow smoke from an explosion blowing into a gas station and right into the park. This ridiculous wording to this question eliminates both answers and should be 100% thrown out.That question being thrown out gets people who got it wrong 2 additional points.All in all that is the perfect protest question, its a win for for everyone and a very big win with people like me who got a 69, it would actually mean 2 points cause the map would have to be thrown out as well,for those who got it correct you dont lose points you just keep it. I hope there are others out there in my boat or people looking for 2 additional points cause here they are !!!



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Only thing I disagree with is how many passed ... I say 1400 only because the majority from what i hear got 70's I only know one live person who got a 90... few in the 80s and the rest all in the 70's

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I do not know about the 4500 number.  I took The Key class and they gave a roster number to make checking-in easy.  My number was in the 3200s and my last name is at the way end of the alphabet.  

I know that not everyone who paid for the season pass took the test but there were also people who paid per session.  If you add in Fast Track, other courses, and no class studiers I find it hard to believe the number is around 4500.

I am not saying its 9500 but I think it was more than 4500.



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If DECAS says 4500, then it's 4500

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Exactly. DCAS is the only official source and they say a little more than 4000. It is what it is.

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