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Right now promotions havent happened in about 6 months.
I believe during 9/11 and the financial collapse of 2010 or so it was even longer between promotions and those lists werent extended.
The only way i can see an extension taking place is if it is still too unsafe to have in person exams in late 2021 or early 2022.
I agree.
I can also see the city attempting to give another test to try to raise money. Maybe even another bogus test like the 2013 one.
Even if 10,000 POs sign up for the test at 100 bucks a pop, thats 1 million dollars. Then the city has to pay at least 4 sgts 6 months salary (approximately $250k) to write the test which doesnt include the admin costs associated with DCAS. Thats a whopping $750k added to the citys budget of 85 BILLION. You honestly think the city gives out civil service tests to generate funds?
-- Edited by Tommy Salami on Thursday 19th of November 2020 01:50:58 PM
Right now promotions havent happened in about 6 months.
I believe during 9/11 and the financial collapse of 2010 or so it was even longer between promotions and those lists werent extended.
The only way i can see an extension taking place is if it is still too unsafe to have in person exams in late 2021 or early 2022.
I agree.
I can also see the city attempting to give another test to try to raise money. Maybe even another bogus test like the 2013 one.
Even if 10,000 POs sign up for the test at 100 bucks a pop, thats 1 million dollars. Then the city has to pay at least 4 sgts 6 months salary (approximately $250k) to write the test which doesnt include the admin costs associated with DCAS. Thats a whopping $750k added to the citys budget of 85 BILLION. You honestly think the city gives out civil service tests to generate funds?
-- Edited by Tommy Salami on Thursday 19th of November 2020 01:50:58 PM
As per chief of personnel all three lists Sgt,Lt,Captain are being extended one year. Under videos on the job phone its the one that says Commissioner Updates for 11/20/2020. Watch the video it also lists the amount i think its 145 sgts and 55 Lts
The chief never said anything about whole list being made. Still have 1400 people left w 2 years and one month left. Someone run the averages but I dont see 1400 being made in that time. Just as I side note I dont care if list is cut or not just giving opinion
I have a gut feeling the whole list will be made now.
Well Ive def been one the biggest doubters since this list came out and Im in the 2200s so i never thought i would make it. But to be honest the extension is a good sign and the Chief did say something like if your worried your gonna die on the list so just the way he worded it made me think they intend on finishing the list so at least for people over 2000 theres a little bit of hope so just stay positive and hopefully it works out
Possible, yes. Probable, no. The reason I say is the mad rush happened, those who called it quits did so. The real measurement is LT promos. If they promote another 500 in 2yrs, ALONG with 500 Sgts retiring, then YES I can see slightly above 2k getting made. Otherwise no. Your gauge is LT promos. I've gauged everything on this list with all numbers and haven't been wrong yet. So all in all factoring LTs, current vacancies and all possible retirements I envision 2200 as the final count.
-- Edited by yougonow on Saturday 21st of November 2020 03:17:48 AM
Why is it Anytime these guys get an ounce of good news everyone runs on here and starts talking about the lists getting cut. Just be patient and wait it out. Alot of you are going to be pleasantly surprised. Remember the same people telling you that, are the same ones who argued that this list would not be 2600 names, said the nypd would never curve another test and said that these lists would never be extended. They keep pointing to what happened in the past and talking about historical averages and what not. Clearly what happened in the past no longer applies. Just wait it out. Stay optimistic and take a breath of relief. In a few years we'll see what happens. But I feel really confident that things will work well for all 3 lists.
Its not about giving bad news. Atleast not with my posts. Its simply just basing things and past AVERAGES. Thats really all things are when talking about future events. Looking at averages. Can all 1400 be made? Of course! Does it go against common averages especially w fiscal restraints? You better believe it. No one including me thought list would be extended and it was, breaking history. But again looking for future results based on hopes and wishes often doesnt work out very well
Why is it Anytime these guys get an ounce of good news everyone runs on here and starts talking about the lists getting cut. Just be patient and wait it out. Alot of you are going to be pleasantly surprised. Remember the same people telling you that, are the same ones who argued that this list would not be 2600 names, said the nypd would never curve another test and said that these lists would never be extended. They keep pointing to what happened in the past and talking about historical averages and what not. Clearly what happened in the past no longer applies. Just wait it out. Stay optimistic and take a breath of relief. In a few years we'll see what happens. But I feel really confident that things will work well for all 3 lists.
Thank you for this post. I thought it was just me! Someone announce good news. Then here comes the naysayers. Just let it play out.
Yeah, I get your point Truth. Just saying. Let's wait this out and see what happens, just not be so quick to get negative. This job has been stressful enough for most this year. Not all good news needs to be followed by bad news. All I'm saying. And Bacon haha. I hear you bro. This extension does suck for the guys waiting for future exams and the schools that prepare them. If there is one thing I'm sure we can agree on, it's that the promotional process sucks and is extremely miserable regardless of where you land on or outside of a list. And Yougo... you've been saying for a while this list was getting extended. You're the true MVP.
Truthseeker thank you for keeping us updated and hopefully they put another big class in Jan. If the department put In a big class of 142 that hasnt been done before, than have hope the list will all be made. Its a new job
Its not uncharted in the sense that you have 2 years left w 1400 ppl to go. Use averages and that will give you rough estimate. Pace slows due to budget you get less. Dept pushes promos due to list dying or vacancies and you get more. The extension honestly puts you alil ahead promotion wise but not extremely due to the no promotions for 6 months. Whats normal rate 500 per year?
about 400 a year are promoted. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. Even with the chaos of this virus and riots.
Just by this fact, anyone 2000 and below are locked in.
The real question is why they extended the list. I think its because of the pandemic. I doubt the PC woke up that morning with a generous heart to have everyone promoted.
Depending on retirements, maybe we get more than 2000 made.
about 400 a year are promoted. Maybe a little more, maybe a little less. Even with the chaos of this virus and riots.
Just by this fact, anyone 2000 and below are locked in.
The real question is why they extended the list. I think its because of the pandemic. I doubt the PC woke up that morning with a generous heart to have everyone promoted.
Depending on retirements, maybe we get more than 2000 made.
I forget if it was shea or morales but in the video they said they extended it because of corona
They extended us Bc of covd. Theres no doubt. Now whether they did it to be fair to members on list, or inability to write and give a test etc will prob be unknown. But this extension if promotions stay steady at same pace will prob add an additional 100 to 200 that wouldnt have gotten made w a regular 4 year list. Now the question is will promotions hold steady?
The key is to follow the LTs and the remainder of the Capt exam and that will give us a very good rough number along with the normal aprox 30 Sgt retirements a month.
I think the LT list will hit roughly 1000 by our expiration and Captains will be nearly exhausted. That gives us aprox 650 stand alone vacancies for just waiting around doing nothing. Factor in Sgts retiring and we can hit theoretically 2200 with NO QUESTION about it. My opinion. The entire list... doubtful, but not a naysayer.
The key is to follow the LTs and the remainder of the Capt exam and that will give us a very good rough number along with the normal aprox 30 Sgt retirements a month.
I think the LT list will hit roughly 1000 by our expiration and Captains will be nearly exhausted. That gives us aprox 650 stand alone vacancies for just waiting around doing nothing. Factor in Sgts retiring and we can hit theoretically 2200 with NO QUESTION about it. My opinion. The entire list... doubtful, but not a naysayer.
