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Post Info TOPIC: What list number to you expect them to reach by end of 2019


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What list number to you expect them to reach by end of 2019


Question? Looking at averages, can anyone estimate what number may be reached by the end of 2019?



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950 and thats just a shot in the dark. No one can predict or estimate accurately so all you are going to get is pure speculation. I frankly dont see a point in this excercise except giving false hope to people in the 2000s.

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Gotcha, thanks again 



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TransitCop wrote:

950 and thats just a shot in the dark. No one can predict or estimate accurately so all you are going to get is pure speculation. I frankly dont see a point in this excercise except giving false hope to people in the 2000s.


 i agree with you. there is no way to know, and anyone claiming they do is full of crap. people with list numbers toward the bottom should plan to take the next test. several people at the end of the 2013 test took the 2017 test to be safe. 



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Sorry to say, the bottom 700-800 definitely need to study for the next Sgt test. But I just hope situation changes and more people get promoted.



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I personally think this year will be above historic levels. Now everyone has enough time Im going with by years end around 1,000 



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I believe if they continue to put in large classes by the end of the year they should be over 1,000. This new regime has so many  supervisors thats able to retire running for the door. 



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1037

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Based on current trends I would say that it is highly unlikely that this sergeants list passes 800 actual promoted sergeants (if you ain't getting the pay, or wearing the badge you ain't promoted yet) by the start of 2020. I base this on a hunch that there will only be 3 more BMOC classes after this current mentoring group graduates. The possibility of only 3 more BMOC classes this year was first suggested by Brooklyn South 3020 (I think he is right) unless the department begins conducting mentoring and BMOC classes concurrently which they do not seem to want to do. This estimate of less then 800 is also based on the current trend of 50-70 cops per class which would put the list somewhere between 714-774 by January 2020. One unusually big class along with 2 normal sized classes could cause me to be wrong, but unless we see at least one 100 or more class this year we are not seeing this list move past 800.



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Monday 18th of March 2019 06:01:25 AM



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Monday 18th of March 2019 06:01:41 AM



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Monday 18th of March 2019 06:08:23 AM

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What was the last list number to be promoted ?

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506 was last one and it looks like they will be upto 563 with this group of 50 going into mentoring.



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Any new update? 



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One thing you have to consider are the skipped names. Why are they skipped, and when will they be cleared? That could soak up a significant portion of this current group going through.



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This list has slowed down dramatically, I don't see how they will get to the end of this list or even to at least 2,000.

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There definitely a shortage and new budget being rolled out always slows around this time of year. Rumor of 50 Lt going in April 15 should leave us plenty short. I am hoping for large all out need to start moving faster.



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I know someone from the list that was recently promoted and they skipped a bunch of names because of the fitness points added after the list was established. 



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With the new OT cuts accross the board, praying for an exodus.

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Im just waiting to figure out what the curve was all about.

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once again, I don't think the test was curved. I have a friend that scored a 69 and he did not pickup any points but then again I know someone who scored a 62 and passed. I don't think it was curved but I think they threw out 10 questions.



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On protest day I counted 29 wrong when viewing my results, giving myself a raw score of 71. I had slightly less then 10 years on at the time, and had not submitted any medals, or jst points. So basically my final score should have been about a 76 with seniority points added, but instead I was assigned a score of 84. The extra eight points I recieved are unexplainable by anything but a curve/scale giving me that score. Granted, it is possible to pick up a point or two from throwouts, and double answers, but eight is beyond what is reasonable to believe for that cause. Also keep in mind this is not based on "what a buddy told me", but rather my own personal experience. 



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Wednesday 3rd of April 2019 08:45:32 AM

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SillyGoose wrote:

Im just waiting to figure out what the curve was all about.


 If you think they made the list this large to promote everyone then youre setting yourself up for disappointment. 



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The bottom line is no one knows what will happen period. We can guess all day long I dont know if there was a curve or throw outs I know some people who say they had a 66 and didnt make it but who knows. I think by the end of this year we should have a pretty good idea on how far this list will go. I personally think it will surpass two thousand because there are so many ready to leave and there no reason for them to stay. We are short in my command by two and will be 3 within two weeks. With no left overs. Hopefully in August Lts start leaving as it will be a year since there largest increase. With all that said I cant see them making the whole list anyway I would guess max 2300.

We should refrain from posting unless its a solid update.



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The extra points are due to the makeup exams. People generally scored higher on the makeups and since they were entirely different tests they weighted the scores of the original exam to avoid any lawsuits.

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Thebirds wrote:

The extra points are due to the makeup exams. People generally scored higher on the makeups and since they were entirely different tests they weighted the scores of the original exam to avoid any lawsuits.


 



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There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM

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IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 So youre saying the entire list will be promoted due to reasons?



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IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 Theyre promoting about roughly 500 a year at best. Well be lucky to see 2000. Im in the middle of the 1800s so Im praying youre right. 

On another note, I heard being they (DCAS) had to redo the list due to the fitness points, that the lists new start dates beings when they re-did the list moving people around. Any truth to that?



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BlastLivesMatter wrote:
IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 Theyre promoting about roughly 500 a year at best. Well be lucky to see 2000. Im in the middle of the 1800s so Im praying youre right. 

On another note, I heard being they (DCAS) had to redo the list due to the fitness points, that the lists new start dates beings when they re-did the list moving people around. Any truth to that?


Its four years from established date. Not adjusted date.  



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IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 Dude, chill out with your little conspiracy theories already, its getting old. The indirect message you are trying to send about "reasons" or whatever is complete crap and many people know the real reason the test was adjusted. The reason it was adjusted was simply because the exams, which are now different then the makeups, were "weighed" and they had to grade differently based on exam difficulty, creating a bigger list. If you aren't going to post facts, then dont post half-assed nonsense that isn't true.



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HanginByAThread wrote:
IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 Dude, chill out with your little conspiracy theories already, its getting old. The indirect message you are trying to send about "reasons" or whatever is complete crap and many people know the real reason the test was adjusted. The reason it was adjusted was simply because the exams, which are now different then the makeups, were "weighed" and they had to grade differently based on exam difficulty, creating a bigger list. If you aren't going to post facts, then dont post half-assed nonsense that isn't true.


 For someone who comes to this board to add nothing useful and onlu panic outloude you talk alot of sh!t. You obviously don't know anything. You come here and panic and don't know sh!t. I'm literally just telling everyone to chill out. I know what I know. My track record speaks for itself. You can come on here crying all you want. I'll just keep my FACTS to myself. 1 test was curved. Just 1. If the city was worried about lawsuits they would have done it to all 3 dumba$$. Get some more time under your belt rookie. Guys like you shouldn't get promoted. But unfortunately knowing what I know. You will. 



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brooklynbacon wrote:
IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 So youre saying the entire list will be promoted due to reasons?


 I'm saying I know why it was done. But don't worry Bacon. You should be good on the LTs list.



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IamTheLaw wrote:
HanginByAThread wrote:
IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 Dude, chill out with your little conspiracy theories already, its getting old. The indirect message you are trying to send about "reasons" or whatever is complete crap and many people know the real reason the test was adjusted. The reason it was adjusted was simply because the exams, which are now different then the makeups, were "weighed" and they had to grade differently based on exam difficulty, creating a bigger list. If you aren't going to post facts, then dont post half-assed nonsense that isn't true.


 For someone who comes to this board to add nothing useful and onlu panic outloude you talk alot of sh!t. You obviously don't know anything. You come here and panic and don't know sh!t. I'm literally just telling everyone to chill out. I know what I know. My track record speaks for itself. You can come on here crying all you want. I'll just keep my FACTS to myself. 1 test was curved. Just 1. If the city was worried about lawsuits they would have done it to all 3 dumba$$. Get some more time under your belt rookie. Guys like you shouldn't get promoted. But unfortunately knowing what I know. You will. 


  Definitely not a rookie, and have been around much longer then you assume. And you probably wouldn't call a "guy like me" a dumbass to my face, trust me on that one. I just wanted to point out what I know, because I know its the truth and eventually you will find out it was the truth also. I don't see a need for someone to constantly post "I know what I know" without saying anything. If you aren't going to share it then just don't post anything. It doesn't give you any credibility bud.



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Anyway, enough with the trash talk, we can all agree to disagree on sh!t. It's whatever. It's the job.

Back to the topic. I have no clue how far they will go, but all I know is that it's moving slow, and I hope they start moving faster. Lol

At this rate I don't see them touching the 2000's, but they can always speed up hiring. Lets hope as many people as possible make it. Because I know a ton of guys on the bottom of that list who will make way better bosses then guys at the top.

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HanginByAThread wrote:
IamTheLaw wrote:
HanginByAThread wrote:
IamTheLaw wrote:

There were only 2 throwouts. List was curved down to a 61. There were reasons for this. Ones I will not get into but trust me. Our list was manufactured to its size on purpose. I don't know if you guys remember when someone blew the whistle on a big meeting about the LT list and its grading before it dropped. But the job was weighing curving that one as well for the same reasons but ultimately decided against it due to the fact it was already so big. Our list was originally 1400. Well within a standard size. The City and the job did not need to go all the way to 2600. But they did... by choice. It had absolutely zero to due with being "fair" or "fear of being sued." Hence why it only happened to 1 list and not all 3.

 



-- Edited by IamTheLaw on Friday 5th of April 2019 08:16:37 PM


 Dude, chill out with your little conspiracy theories already, its getting old. The indirect message you are trying to send about "reasons" or whatever is complete crap and many people know the real reason the test was adjusted. The reason it was adjusted was simply because the exams, which are now different then the makeups, were "weighed" and they had to grade differently based on exam difficulty, creating a bigger list. If you aren't going to post facts, then dont post half-assed nonsense that isn't true.


 For someone who comes to this board to add nothing useful and onlu panic outloude you talk alot of sh!t. You obviously don't know anything. You come here and panic and don't know sh!t. I'm literally just telling everyone to chill out. I know what I know. My track record speaks for itself. You can come on here crying all you want. I'll just keep my FACTS to myself. 1 test was curved. Just 1. If the city was worried about lawsuits they would have done it to all 3 dumba$$. Get some more time under your belt rookie. Guys like you shouldn't get promoted. But unfortunately knowing what I know. You will. 


  Definitely not a rookie, and have been around much longer then you assume. And you probably wouldn't call a "guy like me" a dumbass to my face, trust me on that one. I just wanted to point out what I know, because I know its the truth and eventually you will find out it was the truth also. I don't see a need for someone to constantly post "I know what I know" without saying anything. If you aren't going to share it then just don't post anything. It doesn't give you any credibility bud.


 Not gonna spend all night going back and forth with you level 99 keyboard warrior. And yes. You are a rookie. Or else you wouldn't have b!tched so much over the curve and seniority points the way you did when you deleted that post a while back because the board called you out on it. Like I said. You literally add nothing to this board. Zero. You come on here and do your chicken little sky is falling routine every so often and occasionally put up this fake tough guy act but that's it. Excuse me for spreading some positivity with THINGS I KNOW. I could come on here too and just keep saying negative sh!t to ruffle people's feathers. But why. I only post when I have something to add that is constructive. Like when I told you buttheads about the list being 2600 and curved. Everyone told me I was crazy. A list would never be curved again. No way it should be that big. But it was. This is gonna be no different.  Have a good night! And enjoy the promotion in a few years!



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If your above 1800 your not making it

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I don't think we are far enough along in the life of this list to say that definatively. However, what I would say to those with list numbers near or above 2000 is that a miracle is always possible, but to also start now preparing to get a better score on the next exam should that miracle not come. Yanosik is running a free refresher as we speak, You can also study on your own for one hour a day to ensure you are not like me and require 3 attempts to get a good enough score. Don't give up.



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Friday 19th of April 2019 03:14:29 AM



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Friday 19th of April 2019 03:46:54 AM

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Im 1450-1470 and still taking Yanosiks refresher course. The promotion rate took a nose dive this year. But the vacancies keep coming and if the LTs get on a regular schedule like they say is happening then it theres hope

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is he offering it to anyone whether u not took elite or key?



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I think you right just because the promotions so far are in line with historical averages im not great at math but if they are only averaging 450ish promotions a year they are lucky to even get to 1800 let alone 2000 adding to the fact that bmoc is longer with the mentoring even if they had done 8 classes a year with 70-75 per class from the start, thats only about 2400 after 4 years  so this list was screwed from the start my list is over 2200 so i accepted from day one im not getting made better off studying for the next one in 2020 especially if ur list is over 2000



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I see what you are saying, but you only have one complete year, and a third of the second to average with over 2&1/2 years remaining. At any point conditions could change necessitating an increase in sergeant promotions. We saw just such a thing months prior to the last Lt exam. The number of retirements and promotions above the rank of sergeant could also uptick creating a greater need for sergeants. Also, the reasoning behind the grading and resulting list size is still not fully known by the rank and file beyond rumors and inuendo. Considering the curve balls the City has thrown with the 2013 Sergeant's exam and 2015 Lt's exam, nothing is impossible including the life of this list being extended. I am not saying that I believe this is what is going to happen, but rather that it could happen. 



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Monday 29th of April 2019 10:25:15 PM



-- Edited by Rodrigo54 on Monday 29th of April 2019 10:26:59 PM

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Well no matter what we say its all speculation and rumors for the reason they curved the test to begin with.  We may never know exactly why and as for extending the list i don't know if thats ever been done before for a NYPD test so i don't see why they would now for a list this large but who knows with this job anything is possible...



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The list size itself is proof that there is a first for everything.



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I was told by someone downtown that they are aiming for around the 1400s for Sgts  list and 800s for Lts List.  Two classes will Overlap &  on June 28th it should be 50 going in mentoring program, hopefully more.Thats all I have for now and hoping over time it will change.









-- Edited by Nyfine on Monday 3rd of June 2019 07:02:52 PM

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lol by someone downtown... who... another cop or a sgt? We are already at 615's. Another class and we will probably hit 700. With another 2 if not 3 classes left, I predict a year 2 end of 875-925. Year three will probably be a historic average of another 450 vacancies, which will elevate to approx. 1400. Leaving year 4 for another 350-450 promotions. I think REALISTICALLY the end of the list will be the 1800-1900 range.

Plenty of LT spots opening up, as well as upward promotions which yield slots for Captain.



-- Edited by yougonow on Monday 27th of May 2019 04:45:29 PM

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I asked about promoting  1800-2000 people also, being that this list is so big. I was told 1400 range is  the number they were aiming for and there should be 3-4 more classes going in this year. Things can change at any given moment with the number of vacancies open. They want to announce another test next year, testing the end of 2020 or mid 2021 & that list will become Active when theyll let this one expire.  I dont believe they will extend this list as they will have another list to grab from.



 



 






-- Edited by Nyfine on Monday 3rd of June 2019 07:00:53 PM

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How can the next list be valid in 2021 when this current one is valid until January 2022?



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How can a new list become valid in 2021 when the current list do not expire until January 2022??? 



-- Edited by Dahomeless1 on Monday 27th of May 2019 10:33:01 PM

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Nyfine wrote:

I was told by someone downtown that they are aiming for around the 1400s for Sgts  list and 800s for Lts List.  Two classes will Overlap in June where it will be 50 going in mentoring program. Thats all I have for now and hoping over time it will change.



-- Edited by Nyfine on Monday 27th of May 2019 01:46:29 PM


 Thats odd Bc Ive talked to several people of rank at 1PP and the goal is to promote all that are promotable off the list 



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You can actually have two lists from two different tests in existance at the same time. However, only one can be active. This was the case right after the 2013 list came out while the 2011 list was still winding down.



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Rodrigo54 wrote:

You can actually have two lists from two different tests in existance at the same time. However, only one can be active. This was the case right after the 2013 list came out while the 2011 list was still winding down.


 Yes this is so they can fill a class with the last group from test A with new people from test B 



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